The long-term goals of China and Russia are quite evident from the behaviour of their leaders. Xi Jinping’s land-grab policies in the South-China Sea, and his suppression of any group that doesn’t conform to his party’s philosophy, are two examples of his belief that China’s rightful role in the world is total domination of all countries. Vladimir Putin’s background and training as a KGB agent are reflected in his goal of re-establishing the Soviet Union, with all its original territory in Europe and the Caucasus, and perhaps more, if the chance arises.
Both are presidents for life, although they might take heed of history that suggests the concept of “life” in that sense may well be far shorter than they think.
However, and to the point of this blog, they are both opportunists.
China, culturally, has far more patience in these matters than does Russia, but that doesn’t mean they won’t take rapid advantage of any opportunity when it arises. Also, both men are human beings, and their time is limited, and grows shorter every day. Certainly, they must also be aware that the fate of most dictators in the past has not been very pleasant, and they have no guaranty that their fate won’t be similar.
All these pressures on their respective goals means that any major distraction in the world community will be viewed as an opportunity.
The predictable chaos of the upcoming U.S. Presidential election, and the even worse potential chaos caused by the result, is an excellent opportunity, and one that may not come along again for many years to come. When the one world power that could stop China and Russia’s expansionist goals is embroiled in chaos, and totally distracted, not to mention disinterested in world geopolitical manoeuvres, the results could be catastrophic and, perhaps, irreversible.
China invading Taiwan would be bloody but, without U.S. intervention, would only take a few days or weeks. Russia’s invasion of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would take an afternoon.
Would the U.S. go to war with China and/or Russia after these invasions were complete? In my view, not a chance. Everyone would yell and scream, and threaten all sorts of dire consequences but, in the end, they would do nothing of any consequence, and the perpetrators of these abuses would have achieved their goals……and, worse, would start preparing for the next steps in their plans.
I would be totally amazed, and indeed, shocked, if these scenarios were not part of China’s and Russia’s active plans. It’s just too good an opportunity to miss.
Equally, and this is hope more than conviction, I trust these scenarios are an integral part of the U.S., U.K. and NATO’s armed forces plans.
Prevention is always preferable to action in such situations. Way less people die and the cost is infinitely lower.
All it needs is Western politicians with sense, determination and vision. They have the tools to prevent this catastrophe. All they need is the will to do so.
Fat chance, in my opinion, so I have suggestions:
1. Send a U.S. Carrier Task Force into the Taiwan Straits as a courtesy visit to Taipei a week before the U.S. presidential election and keep it there for at least two weeks.
2. Let Vladimir Putin know that if a single Russian tank or military unit crosses the border of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland or any other foreign jurisdiction during the period of the U.S. Presidential elections, the U.S. will immediately, and without further consultation, close all Russian embassies and consulates in the U.S. and deport their Russian personnel.