Planning for a high-intensity war is not something you might expect from a French General. Increasing pressure from the Chinese Government as a prelude to the invasion of Taiwan is something you would expect from Xi Jinping.
Two unrelated reports this week brought the possibility of global conflict into sharp perspective.
The first was a report of 67 violations of Taiwanese airspace by Chinese air force planes so far this year.
The second was a report that France is about to expend a 46% increase in defence spending in preparation for a high-intensity war within the next 10 years. The expected perpetrator of this war is Russia.
I have discussed, in previous blogs, the joint threats to world order of China’s expansionist policies and Russia’s, read Putin’s, goal of re-establishing the Soviet Union, and then some. These two reports appear to represent another step towards those threats becoming reality.
In practical terms, neither Xi Jinping nor Vladimir Putin is getting any younger. Putin’s problems at home might indicate he needs a major distraction. Xi Jinping recognizes that he has a window of opportunity that the U.S. may well close soon, under Joe Biden. The pressure is growing on both to initiate action soon. Planning for a high-intensity war is essential.
When President Nixon visited China in 1972, which only happened after he agreed to not officially recognise Taiwan as a separate nation, thereby selling-out the Island, the primary objective of the Chinese President, Zhou Enlai in that meeting, was the assimilation of Taiwan under Chinese sovereignty. That goal has remained China’s top priority ever since.
Xi Jinping’s South China Sea land and sea grab is a very strong indication that China thinks the time has come to act.
When Chinese Air Force fighters crossed into Taiwanese air space, for the sixty-seventh time this year, Taiwanese air defence controllers warned them off. The response from the fighter pilots involved was to scream that this was their territory and they have every right to be there. I’m sure the language was a little stronger than that, just as I am equally sure the response was following orders from Xi Jinping.
The only country that can possibly prevent China’s imminent invasion of Taiwan is the United States. The situation needs a pre-emptive action like sending a U.S. Carrier Task Force through the Straits of Taiwan, as I’ve suggested before.
I actually smiled today when I read that the U.S. has deployed a Carrier to the South China Sea. Maybe someone in Washington heard me. I hope they have made up the banner to hang alongside the Carrier that says, “Just try it”.
The longer the Chinese expansionism is allowed to go on, the closer we get to the invasion of Taiwan. And then what do we do, go to war? I doubt it, and the final chapter of the U.S. sell-out of Taiwan, that started with Nixon, will be complete.
And it won’t stop there.
It will give China free-rein to continue gobbling-up south-east Asia, maybe even Australia. The Pentagon has already publicly stated that the U.S. would probably lose a war to China in the South-China Sea, if the U.S. doesn’t significantly bolster its presence there within the next five years. Inaction will only herald World War III.
The second report this week was to announce that France is about to embark on the biggest military exercise, Operation Orion, it has conducted for decades. The French Army has stated that they must be prepared for a high-intensity war, with casualties not seen since World War II, within ten years (I imagine that Putin’s age featured in those discussions).
That is a huge statement, and commitment, which Macron’s government appears to endorse. The spectre of thousands of Russian tanks invading Europe suddenly seems to have entered official consciousness…..in France, of all places. One of the French generals recently told The Economist that, “We absolutely have to prepare for a more dangerous world…..we will be tested more and more brutally….we have to realise this.”
That, also, is an extraordinary statement.
I am tempted to say that both situations have been exacerbated by the suicidal ignorance and incompetence of the Donald Trump Administration in withdrawing the world’s current peace-keeper from the international stage.
I’m sorry to dump this on you, Joe, but it’s time to step up quickly before we descend into war and chaos. Melodramatic, yes, but as someone once said, just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you.
We have lived with relative peace for so long, we have forgotten what can so easily and quickly happen. Planning for a high-intensity war is not only critical, it’s urgent.